FACT SHEET: Increases for ICE and the Pentagon Will Leave Millions Uninsured
$1 Trillion for the Pentagon, Massive Cuts for Medicaid and the ACA
The Trump-GOP budget bill passed this summer de-funded health insurance, food stamps, and other programs to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy and unprecedented budgets for the military and mass deportations.
With the fall government shutdown, President Trump and the GOP doubled down on these priorities. Unless Congress acts to change this, millions of people will unnecessarily lose health insurance, and millions more will be forced to pay double their current rates for health insurance.
At the same time, the budget provides an unprecedented $1 trillion for the military and $170 billion over the next four years for mass deportations and detentions and the militarization of our borders. The Trump-GOP budget increases for the military and mass deportations in FY 2026 would be more than enough to provide Medicaid for every person expected to lose their health insurance.
This table shows state-by-state impacts on health insurance, and how many people could receive Medicaid instead of increases to the military and mass deportation budgets.
You can download this fact sheet as a PDF here.
State by State: The Health Care Costs of Militarism
| Projected increase in uninsured individuals by the year 2034 due to changes in the “Big Beautiful Bill” to various health care programs | Projected increase in ACA premiums, 2024 | Military & Mass Deportation, FY 2026 | |||||
| State | Increase in uninsured due to changes in Medicaid | Increase in uninsured due to changes in ACA subsidies | Increase in uninsured due to changes in Medicare and other policy interactions | Total increase in uninsured | Percent increase in ACA health insurance premiums | Dollar increase in ACA health insurance premiums | Adults who could be insured under Medicaid for the cost of military and mass deportation increases |
| Alabama | 18,000 | 28,000 | 3,100 | 49,100 | 92.7% | $612 | 445,222 |
| Alaska | 22,000 | 2,400 | 940 | 25,340 | 125.4% | $1,836 | 48,226 |
| Arizona | 290,000 | 33,000 | 12,000 | 335,000 | 86.7% | $780 | 455,156 |
| Arkansas | 93,000 | 9,100 | 4,200 | 106,300 | 84.2% | $828 | 265,975 |
| California | 1,300,000 | 230,000 | 57,000 | 1,587,000 | n/a | n/a | 4,444,623 |
| Colorado | 130,000 | 18,000 | 6,100 | 154,100 | n/a | n/a | 748,976 |
| Connecticut | 110,000 | 14,000 | 5,100 | 129,100 | n/a | n/a | 537,283 |
| Delaware | 32,000 | 2,900 | 1,500 | 36,400 | 68.0% | $1,200 | 43,701 |
| District of Columbia | 29,000 | 1,600 | 1,100 | 31,700 | n/a | n/a | 91,302 |
| Florida | 65,000 | 500,000 | 25,000 | 590,000 | 89.8% | $528.0 | 3,559,007 |
| Georgia | 32,000 | 120,000 | 7,500 | 159,500 | 84.6% | $528.0 | 930,588 |
| Hawaii | 35,000 | 4,100 | 1,700 | 40,800 | 49.2% | $1,080.0 | 112,956 |
| Idaho | 30,000 | 5,500 | 1,700 | 37,200 | n/a | n/a | 103,729 |
| Illinois | 400,000 | 52,000 | 18,000 | 470,000 | 61.0% | $1,032.0 | 1,926,392 |
| Indiana | 180,000 | 26,000 | 8,500 | 214,500 | 81.7% | $804.0 | 231,477 |
| Iowa | 68,000 | 8,300 | 3,400 | 79,700 | 96.8% | $1,080.0 | 185,024 |
| Kansas | 12,000 | 12,000 | 1,600 | 25,600 | 76.6% | $708.0 | 197,181 |
| Kentucky | 200,000 | 4,500 | 7,900 | 212,400 | n/a | n/a | 177,573 |
| Louisiana | 230,000 | 17,000 | 9,200 | 256,200 | 100.0% | $780.0 | 220,498 |
| Maine | 28,000 | 3,000 | 1,500 | 32,500 | n/a | n/a | 107,370 |
| Maryland | 140,000 | 30,000 | 7,100 | 177,100 | n/a | n/a | 583,621 |
| Massachusetts | 140,000 | 34,000 | 7,700 | 181,700 | n/a | n/a | 1,054,571 |
| Michigan | 260,000 | 32,000 | 12,000 | 304,000 | 70.4% | $828.0 | 894,680 |
| Minnesota | 150,000 | 9,400 | 6,800 | 166,200 | n/a | n/a | 467,948 |
| Mississippi | 14,000 | 21,000 | 2,100 | 37,100 | 160.0% | $480.0 | 118,226 |
| Missouri | 130,000 | 26,000 | 6,700 | 162,700 | 108.2% | $792.0 | 398,117 |
| Montana | 34,000 | 3,600 | 1,600 | 39,200 | 81.3% | $1,092.0 | 71,796 |
| Nebraska | 30,000 | 7,800 | 1,800 | 39,600 | 97.9% | $1,092.0 | 104,912 |
| Nevada | 83,000 | 13,000 | 3,900 | 99,900 | n/a | n/a | 331,570 |
| New Hampshire | 18,000 | 3,900 | 1,200 | 23,100 | 58.9% | $876.0 | 129,683 |
| New Jersey | 240,000 | 50,000 | 12,000 | 302,000 | n/a | n/a | 1,121,100 |
| New Mexico | 80,000 | 5,400 | 3,400 | 88,800 | n/a | n/a | 98,418 |
| New York | 760,000 | 68,000 | 32,000 | 860,000 | n/a | n/a | 2,744,304 |
| North Carolina | 220,000 | 63,000 | 12,000 | 295,000 | 101.8% | $672.0 | 799,533 |
| North Dakota | 16,000 | 2,400 | 800 | 19,200 | 90.9% | $1,080.0 | 66,612 |
| Ohio | 290,000 | 37,000 | 14,000 | 341,000 | 82.7% | $804.0 | 700,689 |
| Oklahoma | 110,000 | 18,000 | 5,300 | 133,300 | 101.8% | $696.0 | 332,922 |
| Oregon | 190,000 | 10,000 | 7,800 | 207,800 | 67.7% | $1,332.0 | 189,019 |
| Pennsylvania | 340,000 | 38,000 | 16,000 | 394,000 | n/a | n/a | 1,265,878 |
| Rhode Island | 33,000 | 4,800 | 1,500 | 39,300 | n/a | n/a | 103,101 |
| South Carolina | 17,000 | 36,000 | 3,500 | 56,500 | 98.0% | $588.0 | 403,794 |
| South Dakota | 9,000 | 2,400 | 650 | 12,050 | 116.3% | $1,284.0 | 59,478 |
| Tennessee | 24,000 | 40,000 | 4,200 | 68,200 | 100.0% | $540.0 | 820,920 |
| Texas | 110,000 | 350,000 | 21,000 | 481,000 | 115.2% | $456.0 | 2,319,583 |
| Utah | 48,000 | 26,000 | 3,000 | 77,000 | 116.7% | $672.0 | 160,835 |
| Vermont | 14,000 | 1,200 | 720 | 15,920 | n/a | n/a | 58,270 |
| Virginia | 260,000 | 38,000 | 12,000 | 310,000 | n/a | n/a | 492,707 |
| Washington | 350,000 | 27,000 | 14,000 | 391,000 | n/a | n/a | 880,208 |
| West Virginia | 54,000 | 3,300 | 2,500 | 59,800 | 133.0% | $1,404.0 | 79,587 |
| Wisconsin | 54,000 | 18,000 | 4,200 | 76,200 | 85.5% | $1,200.0 | 455,139 |
| Wyoming | 0 | 2,300 | 260 | 2,560 | 195.0% | $1,872.0 | 62,166 |
| TOTAL | 7,522,000 | 2,112,900 | 398,770 | 10,033,670 | n/a | n/a | 32,201,646 |
Sources: Predicted increase in uninsured: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CBO estimates from August 2025. Predicted ACA premium increases: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of 2024 Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) data.
Premium data are only available for states that use Healthcare.gov, but other states would also experience increases. Costs of military and mass deportations: Institute for Policy Studies analysis of the Trump-GOP budget bill. State estimates are based on Trump plans to provide an additional $119 billion for the military and $43 billion for mass deportations in FY 2026.
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