Syria—What to Expect After Assad
The Middle East is a region of tyrants, from Iran to Saudi Arabia. Even leaders of democratic countries like Israel have become steadily more authoritarian over the years. The Arab Spring had long ago turned into an Arab winter.
Bashar al-Assad, the son of a tyrant, fit right in. He ruled over Syria with an iron fist for more than two decades, ruthlessly cracking down on political opposition. When a pro-democracy movement emerged in 2011, a few months after the Arab Spring began, Assad doubled down on repression, even using chemical weapons against his own citizens.
With Russian and Iranian assistance, Assad hung on to power and maintained control of most of Syria. Anti-government forces, divided by geography and ideology, were gradually confined to specific areas—Turkish-backed forces in the north, Kurds in the northeast, the Sunni Islamist formation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in northwestern Idlib province, and some fighters near a U.S. military base in the southeast.
A few months ago, with an uneasy stalemate prevailing over the country, it looked as though Assad would avoid the grisly fate of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi, who’d failed to survive a similar uprising. The Syrian economy was teetering, thanks in large part to U.S.-led sanctions, and corruption was rife. But a number of countries—the United States, Israel, the United Arab Emirates—were even thinking about lifting sanctions if Assad cut his close ties with Iran.
