Comprehensive Analysis Reveals True Cost Of The U.S. Military In Hawaiʻi – and Offers Alternatives

For Immediate Release

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Honolulu, Hawaiʻi – On May 27, the Institute for Policy Studies released a new report, “The True Cost Of The U.S. Military In Hawaiʻi: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Economic, Environmental, Strategic, and Social Impacts of the U.S. Military Presence in Hawai’i,” co-produced by ʻĀina Aloha Economic Futures, The Costs of War Project, ʻĪlioʻulaokalani Coalition, Sierra Club of Hawaiʻi, and the Transition Security Project.

This new analysis offers the most definitive accounting ever produced of the full costs of the U.S. military presence in Hawaiʻi. 

The report reveals groundbreaking new findings on nine research areas: historical land use and sovereignty, strategic doctrine, environmental harm, including PFAS contamination, public health, economic impact, employment, housing affordability, land valuation, and base conversion.

Hawaiʻi is central to the administration’s planned military buildup against China. That buildup is now unfolding alongside a proposed $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget — even as costs of living rise and safety net programs face deep cuts. The collision of those pressures is bringing new scrutiny to what the military presence in Hawaiʻi actually costs, and who bears that burden. 

This report comes out during a critical window in the national debate over Pentagon spending – including the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) – and the statewide debate over the future of the military leases on 46,000 acres of Hawaiian land that expire beginning in 2028.

Key findings include:

• The military’s actual economic contribution to Hawaiʻi is nearly 30% less than the Pentagon and state officials claim — $7.2 billion, not $10 billion, or 6.4% of GDP rather than 9.2%. And even that sum comes at steep, in some ways, incalculable, costs to the environment, public health, housing and the islands’ long-term economic security.
• While the military paid $1 for 65-year leases, the report estimates that fair market rent for the land totals up to $133.7 billion.
• Military demand for off-base housing inflated average rents on Oʻahu by an estimated 7.1% in 2024, costing non-military renters an additional $234.8 million — about $1,848 per household.
• The toxic legacy is largely unaddressed — including the Red Hill fuel disaster — and PFAS remediation at just three installations is conservatively estimated at $493 million, with indirect costs — elevated cancer rates, water filtration, lost food production — potentially reaching into the billions.
• The U.S. military presence in Hawaiʻi is larger than necessary, driven by inflated threat assessments and an offensive doctrine that actually increases the risk of war with China. A defensive strategy would reduce escalation risks and free Hawaiʻi’s land and resources for the islands’ pressing ecological and social needs.  

This report details what has long been obscured from public view. Taken together, they reveal that the dominant narrative about the U.S. military in Hawaiʻi—that it is an indispensable economic engine, a guarantor of security, and a responsible steward of the land — is, at best, overstated, and at worst, false. 

The upcoming expiration of military land leases offers a pivotal opportunity, after more than 60 years, to revisit the terms on which these lands are held.

“The military’s economic impact is significantly smaller than officials claim,” said David Vine, author of Base Nation, who has studied U.S. military bases for nearly 25 years. “We found the military overstates its impact by $2.8 billion, or nearly 30%. Its massive use of land and federal dollars is likely limiting the growth of industries that would serve residents far better. Every $1 million spent on the military generates about 5 jobs. The same million spent in other sectors creates more than 12 jobs with broader benefits for the people of Hawaiʻi.”

“The future of land in Hawaiʻi belongs to Native Hawaiians and residents to decide—not the Pentagon,” said Davis Price of ʻĀina Aloha Economic Futures. “The U.S. military paid $1 for 65-year leases on land valued at up to $133.7 billion — not counting cleanup costs — underscoring the gross mismanagement by state and federal governments. When these leases expire in 2028, communities must reclaim this land for the people, not the U.S. war economy.”

“The U.S. military is a major, largely unacknowledged driver of Hawaiʻi’s housing crisis,” said Omar Ocampo of the Institute for Policy Studies. “Military demand inflated rents on Oahu by an estimated 7.1% in 2024 alone, costing non-military renters nearly $235 million out of pocket. Year after year, rents and home prices climb while wages don’t, pushing out middle- and low-income families. The military’s footprint is part of the problem — and reducing it is part of the fix.”

“The U.S. military has spent decades contaminating Hawaiʻi’s air, water, and food sources with toxic chemicals, including PFAS ʻforever chemicals,’” said Wayne Tanaka of the Sierra Club of Hawaiʻi. “PFAS from military firefighting foams will persist for generations. Cleaning up and monitoring just three installations is conservatively estimated at $493 million — and still won’t eliminate the potential threat as PFAS migrates through our environment. Indirect costs — elevated cancer rates, lost food production, and water filtration for families who can’t trust their tap — could reach into the billions. This barely scratches the surface of what decades of unaccountable military stewardship has and will continue to cost us.”

“Hawaiʻi is paying the price for a military strategy built on worst-case assumptions. The real security threats facing the islands are rising seas, extreme weather, and wildfire risk — not a hypothetical war with China. A smarter, more defensive approach to the Indo-Pacific would reduce the risk of catastrophic conflict and return the land and resources Hawaiʻi needs to secure its people’s water, environment, and future,” warned Neta Crawford, Professor of International Relations at University of St Andrews.

For generations, Native Hawaiians have led the demand for accountability from the U.S. military. This report gives policymakers, business leaders, and the broader public the tools to demand both accountability and a fundamental change in Hawaiʻi’s relationship with the U.S. military. The people of Hawaiʻi, especially Native Hawaiians, deserve to make this decision with full knowledge of the costs, risks, and benefits. 

“Aloha ʻāina reminds us that land is not a commodity to be exploited but a living relationship to be honored and sustained. This report is a crucial resource as we decide what comes next. Decisions made today will have a huge impact on future generations. We have been living with the decisions that were made decades ago – now we have the opportunity to make them right for future generations. Itʻs Our Time! Letʻs make it right! Letʻs make it Pono. Ua Mau Ke Ea O Ka ʻĀina I Ka Pono!” said Vicky Holt Takamine, Founder, ʻIlioʻulaokalani Coalition. 

Summary of key findings: https://www.ips-dc.org/summary-true-cost-of-u-s-military-bases-in-hawaii 

Full analysis:
https://www.ips-dc.org/report-true-cost-of-u-s-military-bases-in-hawaii 

Experts on each aspect of the report and the concerns it raises are available for comment or interviews. To speak with one of the report co-authors, contact IPS Deputy Communications Director Olivia Alperstein at olivia@ips-dc.org.  

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