Would a President Biden Embrace Democracy in the Middle East?

Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, October 2020, pp. 57-58

Waging Peace

The Cordoba Foundation and Georgetown University’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding held a joint event on Aug. 11 to discuss how the November U.S. presidential election could impact U.S. Middle East policy, particularly as it pertains to democracy promotion.

University of Denver Professor Nader Hashemi does not envision Democratic nominee Joe Biden actively promoting democratization in the region. “There is very little evidence that suggests he has had any interest in or has publicly supported democracy in the Middle East. In fact, all of the evidence points in the opposite direction,” he said. 

In particular, he noted Biden’s track record of viewing authoritarian leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere as “moderate Arab allies” who guarantee “stability” in the region. “Stability,” Hashemi noted, “is simply a code word for supporting authoritarian regimes in the Middle East that back our strategic and economic interests.” 

Hashemi envisions a return to the old status quo under Biden, noting that the former vice president has “a very mainstream establishment U.S. foreign policy perspective on the Middle East.” This, he believes, would entail strong support for Israel, and using drones and small troop deployments to continue the war on terror.

Despite his general pessimism, Hashemi sees “some areas where Joe Biden might play a more constructive role.” He believes Biden is likely to rejoin the international nuclear agreement with Iran, and more inclined than President Donald Trump to push regional allies such as Saudi Arabia to reign in some troubling policies, such as the war in Yemen.

Phyllis Bennis of the Institute for Policy Studies also has low expectations for a Biden presidency. “The U.S., under either candidate, will not be a supporter of real democratic change in the region,” she predicted.

While Biden has shown a willingness to evolve on issues over his long political career, Bennis said he has remained rigid in his foreign policy views. “We have seen enormous shifts in Biden policy on climate, on immigration, on economics, on a host of issues; we have not seen that change on foreign policy,” she noted. 

Like Hashemi, Bennis believes Biden would nonetheless improve U.S. regional policy in some areas, such as de-escalating tensions with Iran, ending the Muslim ban, removing refugee quotas and refunding the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

At the same time, Bennis fears Biden would stay the course in Afghanistan and surround himself with hawkish advisers such as former National Security Adviser Susan Rice, who was an advocate for the NATO intervention in Libya. “The endless wars, I’m afraid, will continue to be endless,” Bennis predicted.

On Israel, Bennis said Biden refuses to acknowledge his party’s grassroots shift away from unquestioning support for the country. She believes his ardent pro-Israel posture at least in part stems from the traditional belief in Washington that betraying the pro-Israel lobby is not worth the political risks. “There is still the belief somehow that criticizing Israel is a matter of political suicide,” she noted. “I’m not sure it ever was, but it certainly isn’t now.” 

Should Biden win in November, Bennis believes activists will need to vigilantly push his administration on important foreign policy issues. The good news, she said, is that unlike the current administration, a Biden White House would likely at least feel the need to listen to its critics from the left. “That’s why I have a little bit of hope going into this election,” Bennis concluded.

—Dale Sprusansky