John Goekler applies the science of Complex Adaptive Systems to exploring issues like global security, governance, educational transformation and organizational effectiveness. He lives in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
Memo to US — You’ve Been Out-Adapted. Go Home!
The U.S. is unable to adapt to the Taliban’s ability to adapt.
Is There a Method to Israel’s Settlement Madness?
How Israel can walk back settlements yet save face.
Q. So What Are You Fighting For? A. Ah’m Fightin’ Cause Yore Here
To insurgents, invasion will always trump ideology as the reason they resist.
In Today’s Open-Source World, Low-Tech Attacks by “Other Guys” Rule
Behold the lowly caltrop — it’s ROI is off the charts.
There’s Light at the End of the Tunnel — or, It’s Deja Vu All Over Again
Simplifying the COIN game plan.
Fireground Rules, Part 2: A Scheme is Not a Vision
Wildfires, like conflicts between states, are fast, dynamic and fierce.
Fireground Rules, Part 1: When in Doubt, Cease and Desist
The definition of insanity applied to foreign policy.
The Passing of the State, Part 47 — It’s Not Just the Talib, Folks
Gangs, tribes, and sects — aka, Other Guys — only have to not lose to win wars.
The Wikileaks Release: Smile, You’re on YouTube!
Stewart Brand said, “Information wants to be free.” Only politicians believe they can contain it.
Dinosaurs Can’t Dance: The Impending Extinction of the Nation-State
The dinosaur of the nation-state is headed towards the tar pits.
What Barry Should Say to Bibi
After over 60 years of friendship, Israel — of its own volition and through its own actions — has become an economic and security liability to the US.
Afghanistan by the Book — THE Book, That Is
Why not hold Gen. Petraeus’s performance in Afghanistan to the standards of his seminal work on counterinsurgency, Field Manual 3-24?
A REALLY BIG Black Swan
In the security biz, so-called “black swans” blindside you and maybe even inflict a career-ending injury.
Leave Afghanistan and Declare bin Laden Dead in One Fell Swoop
It will likely be far more dangerous politically for Obama NOT to bring the boys home quickly than to “win” the war.
Question: Will Lithium Be Good For Afghanistan?
The prospect of mineral wealth in Afghanistan may be the worst thing that could happen to it.
The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be
A crash course on complexity science as seen through the lens of Israel.
Israel: When You Circle the Wagons, Shoot Outward!
Israel as we know it, will cease to exist in the foreseeable future.
Hello, Has Anybody Seen Our Idea of Governance in Afghanistan?
Afghanistan is a landscape of “sink holes” into which our idea of governance has fallen.